Investments in transmission capacity are growing while generation is declining. Therefore the national grid that coordinates eight transmission regions with 183 substations from a control centre in Oshogbo has over 2000MW idle capacity as generation from Nigeria’s 25 power plants slows.
“Under the Buhari Administration, the grid has expanded to 6,200 MW because we have completed transmission stations in places like Ikot Ekepene, Okada, Alagbon, Ajah, Katampe, Sokoto and awarded many more in places like Damboa, Pankshin, Osogbo, Kumbotso, Odogunyan to mention a few,” said Babatunde Fashola minister of Power, Works and Housing at recent lecture delivered at the University of Lagos.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released data indicating that in the three months ending June 2017, Nigeria’s 25 power plants generated a paltry 2,503MW of electricity and that current generation capacity hovers around 4,000MW.
“The taste of the pudding is in the eating,” says Chuks Nwani, energy lawyer and vice president of PowerHouse International, energy advisory.“It is easy for the government to claim they have raised transmission capacity when there is no gas to test the veracity of the claims.”
However, Kareem Jubril, who handles power sector research at Ecobank sees it differently, “it is ideal that transmission capacity is higher than power generated. Therefore there is nothing unusual about the fact that both figures don’t match.”
Analysts say the challenge is that there seems not to be commensurate efforts at ramping up generation even as transmission improves.
“Some of the power plants in the country now lie idle because the operators shut them down rather than incur further losses from gas suppliers whose debts are not settled,” said Nwani.
Another challenge, expert say, is the high system frequency constraints, which is mostly due to inability of Discos to take power from TCN. There is also no investment in faulty or out-of-service turbines, which are often shut down for repairs or maintenance.
“The only strange thing is the seeming inability to address the high system frequency issues arising from loss of Disco feeders,” said Odion Omonfoman, an energy consultant and the CEO of New Hampshire Capital Ltd.
However, Business Day reported that investment in transmission capacity expansion is not coming cheap. According to a project information document obtained from the World Bank website, the cost of the 22 priority projects identified in the Power Sector Recovery Implementation Programme (PSRIP) to upgrade existing transmission capacity from 5,500MW to 7,000 MW by 2021 would cost $490 million.
While Nigeria has installed generation capacity of 11,800MW comprising 1,400MW of hydro and 9,000MW of gas-fired power plants, available capacity ranges between 3000 to 5000MW. Huge generation capacity remains stranded due to gas supply constraints. Sabotage of petroleum export infrastructure in 2016 has further curtailed supply of associated gas used in power production with the result that average operating capacity in early 2017 was only about 3.5 GW.