Why Peak Electricity Generation Clogged At 5,000MW Since 1999

Peak generation on the Nigerian electricity grid has risen only by 3,375 megawatts (MW) within the last 20 years. For 20 years, the peak generation has not gone beyond 5,000MW threshold which it first attained in 2012. As at Monday, the national peak generation started at 3,487MW, a figure obtainable even before the power sector privatization of 2013.

According to the Daily Operational record posted by the Independent System Operation (ISO), a section of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), peak generation on Sunday was 4,329MW. The lowest generation that day was 3,010MW. The National Population Commission (NPC) estimates show that Nigeria has about 200 million people, way much more than the 160m it estimated in 1999 when democratic dispensation began after a long military rule. Although the ISO puts the National Peak Demand Forecast at 25,790MW for this growing population, the highest peak electricity ever generated is 5,375MW (in February 2019).

Daily Trust in this analysis consulted other industry sources and records on a two-decade-long power generation history to find why the grid could not grow beyond 5,000MW since 1999. In 1999, the highest electricity generation then was about 2,000MW. That only rose to 5,375MW on February 7, 2019, which, is after 20 years. The total installed capacity of power Generation Companies (GenCos) was slightly above 6,000MW and operated below 60 per cent in 1999, data from the defunct Presidential Task Force on Power (PTFP), which operated under the Federal Ministry of Power, shows. However, in 2019, GenCos capacity only moved to 7,652MW, Transmission at 8,100MW and Distribution at 5,500MW capacity, ISO report indicated.

 

Source: Daily Trust

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